IEA Projects a Large Global Oil Surplus in 2026
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a significant global oil surplus in 2026
as supply continues to grow faster than demand. The agency reports that rising production
from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries could lead to an oversupply of more than
4 million barrels per day by 2026.
Key Highlights
- Strong supply growth: Global oil production is projected to rise sharply in 2025–2026, driven by output from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana.
- Slower demand growth: Demand growth continues to moderate due to efficiency gains, electric vehicle adoption, and economic uncertainty.
- Inventory accumulation: Rising stock levels and increased crude stored on tankers indicate softening market conditions.
- Market imbalance: The IEA warns that the oil market is becoming “increasingly oversupplied” heading into 2026.
Market Implications
A sustained surplus could pressure global crude prices and lead producers to scale back
future investments. Meanwhile, refiners and import-dependent markets may benefit from
more favourable crude pricing in the medium term.
Sources
